Own the sectors the cycle rewards. Step aside when it turns.
Sector leadership in US equities shifts with the economic cycle. Alpha Cycle US reads where the economy stands each month and holds only the sectors that have historically led in that phase — and moves to Treasury bills when the cycle turns against equities. Two questions set the regime: is US growth accelerating or slowing, and is inflation rising or falling? The answer maps to Recovery, Expansion, Easing, or Squeeze, each with a fixed sector basket and cash weight. The process is rules-based, rebalanced monthly, and uses listed ETFs plus T-bills — no leverage or derivatives.
Leading indicators gauge growth; actual consumer prices gauge inflation.
Each signal is scored against its own history, with a buffer to avoid whipsaw.
Each regime maps to a fixed sector basket and cash weight. No overrides.
Only data already published is used. Regime changes are infrequent.
Growth picks up as inflation cools. Holds cyclical leaders — financials, consumer, industrials — plus cash.
Strong demand pushes prices higher. Holds growth and cyclical leaders, with an energy sleeve.
Growth slows as inflation and rates ease. Holds long-duration growth — technology, software, housing — plus cash.
Growth slows; inflation stays high. Moves entirely to short-term Treasury bills to protect capital.
| Key Risks | Mitigating Strategies |
|---|---|
| Equity Market Risk : Potential decrease in value due to external factors. | Stop-Loss : Protects against sudden market downturns |
| Momentum Strategy : may sometimes experience drawdowns in search of high momentum stocks. | Rebalancing : Ensures consistent asset class diversification |
| Industry Concentration : Sector-specific vulnerabilities. | Model Testing : Prior validation for live trades |
| Foreign Investment Risk : Currency fluctuations, political instability, & regulatory changes. |
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