Alpha Cycle US Strategy

Own the sectors the cycle rewards. Step aside when it turns.

Sector leadership in US equities shifts with the economic cycle. Alpha Cycle US reads where the economy stands each month and holds only the sectors that have historically led in that phase — and moves to Treasury bills when the cycle turns against equities. Two questions set the regime: is US growth accelerating or slowing, and is inflation rising or falling? The answer maps to Recovery, Expansion, Easing, or Squeeze, each with a fixed sector basket and cash weight. The process is rules-based, rebalanced monthly, and uses listed ETFs plus T-bills — no leverage or derivatives.

Decoding our algorithms

  1. Read the economy

    Leading indicators gauge growth; actual consumer prices gauge inflation.

  2. Judge the direction

    Each signal is scored against its own history, with a buffer to avoid whipsaw.

  3. Set the portfolio

    Each regime maps to a fixed sector basket and cash weight. No overrides.

  4. Rebalance monthly

    Only data already published is used. Regime changes are infrequent.

Criteria for selection

  1. Recovery — mostly invested

    Growth picks up as inflation cools. Holds cyclical leaders — financials, consumer, industrials — plus cash.

  2. Expansion — fully invested

    Strong demand pushes prices higher. Holds growth and cyclical leaders, with an energy sleeve.

  3. Easing — mostly invested

    Growth slows as inflation and rates ease. Holds long-duration growth — technology, software, housing — plus cash.

  4. Squeeze — in cash

    Growth slows; inflation stays high. Moves entirely to short-term Treasury bills to protect capital.

Disclaimer : Outside of the tables marked ‘live performance’, the numbers and graphics herein are examples and exhibits of the topic discussed and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Funds utilizing futures and derivatives carry a risk of substantial losses and are not suitable for all investors. There is no guarantee the strategies outlined herein will result in profits or achieve their desired outcome. Please see  full terms of use risk disclaimer and privacy policy.
Live Performance
Coming Soon …
Navigating Market Volatility: Our Risk Management
Key RisksMitigating Strategies
Equity Market Risk : Potential decrease in value due to external factors.Stop-Loss : Protects against sudden market downturns
Momentum Strategy : may sometimes experience drawdowns in search of high momentum stocks.Rebalancing : Ensures consistent asset class diversification
Industry Concentration : Sector-specific vulnerabilities.Model Testing : Prior validation for live trades
Foreign Investment Risk : Currency fluctuations, political instability, & regulatory changes.
Backtested Performance
Full performance tables including backtested results prior to the fund launch are available to QEPs. Please review important disclosures regarding the material assumptions and hypothetical nature of the backtested results when viewing this performance.*
*This presentation is intended only for investors with more than $2 million in investable assets that qualify as a “QEP” (learn more). Please note that this requirement is only to view backtested results, and that the investment itself is available to all accredited investors.

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Frequently asked questions

Sector leadership in US equities shifts with the economic cycle. Alpha Cycle US reads where the economy stands each month and holds only the sectors that have historically led in that phase — and moves to Treasury bills when the cycle turns against equities. Two questions set the regime: is US growth accelerating or slowing, and is inflation rising or falling? The answer maps to Recovery, Expansion, Easing, or Squeeze, each with a fixed sector basket and cash weight. The process is rules-based, rebalanced monthly, and uses listed ETFs plus T-bills — no leverage or derivatives.
Disclaimer : Outside of the tables marked ‘live performance’, the numbers and graphics herein are examples and exhibits of the topic discussed and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Funds utilizing futures and derivatives carry a risk of substantial losses and are not suitable for all investors. There is no guarantee the strategies outlined herein will result in profits or achieve their desired outcome. Please see full terms of use risk disclaimer and privacy policy.
How to Get Started
Step 1
Complete our Application Form
Step 2
Verify You are an Accredited Investor
Step 3
Review & Sign Investment Docs
Step 4
Wire in Your Funds
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